Bond Traders Greet a Momentous Week With Their Wagers Reeled In
- Speculators trim futures positions, investors go more neutral
- Strategists draw conflicting conclusions on election scenarios
The outlook heading into 2025 hinges on the results of the presidential and congressional votes, which will shape policies from taxes to tariffs and potentially the Federal Reserve’s stance for years to come.
Photographer: Al Drago/BloombergAfter driving Treasury yields higher for weeks, traders are taking chips off the table before the US election, reluctant to take bold bond bets with the presidential race too close to call.
The theme of retrenching has dominated of late: Speculators have been liquidating Treasuries futures positions, and a closely watched JPMorgan Chase & Co. survey showed its Treasuries clients trimming both long and short wagers. The message, at the start of this momentous week — and with Wall Street rolling out a diverse set of scenarios for how bonds might react to the election aftermath — is that confidence around the path forward is dim.