‘Crystal Ball’ Breaks as Traders Fail to Get Rich in New Study
- Even the pros can misjudge asset moves with advance knowledge
- Study illustrates challenge of predicting markets, sizing bets
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If investors had known in advance the size of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate cut, would they have made big money on stocks and bonds trading on this market-moving intel?
Surprisingly, the answer appears to be a resounding no, at least when it comes to amateur traders and their ilk, according to a recent study from Elm Partners Management’s Victor Haghani and James White.