Weather & Science

Hurricane Intensity Is a Mystery Forecasters Are Struggling to Solve

Scientists say missing data and gaps in research make it hard to predict hurricane winds at landfall.

Storm clouds ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Helene in Cancun, Mexico on Sept. 24.Photographer: Elizabeth Ruiz/AFP/Getty Images
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Hurricane Helene is forecast to pummel Florida’s west coast Thursday with devastating winds — but exactly how devastating won’t be evident until skies clear.

That’s because wind speed predictions are hamstrung by patchy data and gaps in research about how hurricanes gather power from warm waters in the hours before they reach land. While forecasts tracking where storms will strike have become much more accurate since the mid-1990s, methods for pinpointing their intensity have lagged behind, despite recent improvements.