Traders Boost Fed Bets With November Cut Size Seen as a Toss-Up
- Positions added in 2-year and SOFR futures since Sept. 18
- Two-year futures’ December contract has most open interest yet
A television station broadcasts Jerome Powell speaking after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, on Sept. 18.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
The debate over the magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate cut in November is intensifying, with traders ramping up wagers in futures keyed to the central bank’s path as officials start to weigh in on their next move.
After weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data Tuesday, investors leaned a bit more toward a second straight half-point easing at the Nov. 7 decision. The upshot is that it’s essentially become a coin toss in the swaps market between another outsized reduction and a more standard quarter-point move.