Traders’ Big Bet on a Half-Point Fed Cut Is Back in Bond Markets
- JPMorgan reiterates outlier call for a bold move next week
- Treasuries have rallied on possibility the consensus is wrong
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Bond traders are once again ramping up wagers on a half-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, just days after that bet seemed all-but-over.
The likelihood of a 50-basis-point move climbed to 40% on Friday, up from as low as 4% earlier in the week. The repricing added to a rally in US government bonds, lifted small-cap stocks and weighed on the dollar.