Oil’s Hot Summer Is Ending, Posing Risks for Majors and OPEC+
- OPEC+ will soon decide whether to boost output in October
- Market set for 2025 surplus even if OPEC holds supply steady
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After a strong start to the summer, the outlook for oil prices is unravelling — leaving trading desks, supermajors and Middle East producers grappling with what comes next.
Since nearing $90 a barrel in early July, oil futures have lost more than 10% as China’s faltering economy and expectations of a flood of new supply from the Americas eclipsed US summer driving demand and Middle East geopolitical tensions. Burgeoning fuelmaking capacity is eroding bumper profits for refineries, eroding their crude buying.