US
Threat of US Civil Unrest Is Low But Rising, Analysis Finds
- Bloomberg Economics analysis sees 2.9% probability of unrest
- Weak institutions, rising factionalism help predict conflict
The analysis found the erosion of democratic institutions and rise of factional grievances in the US have “significantly elevated the risk of internal armed conflict.”
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
The US trails only Turkey and Russia among the world’s biggest economies likeliest to see violent political turmoil in the next year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis that tries to capture an uneasy national mood after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump.
The chance of open civil unrest in the next year is low — just 2.9% — but is third highest among the Group of 20 major economies, according to the analysis. The risk in the US is more than double for nations such as Canada, Germany and Australia that are considered America’s democratic peers.