Clashing Risk Predictions Cast Doubt on Black Box Climate Models

Many companies offer detailed climate projections tailored to property-level precision. These tools can allow owners and investors to better anticipate risks of flooding, wind, wildfire and other disasters. Insurers have been among the adopters of climate-risk models, in a sign that these forecasts of vulnerability will inform decisions about whose premiums go up as the planet warms.

But these risk assessments are happening inside what amounts to a bunch of black boxes. There’s almost no way to compare or review the growing number of risk projections, which are typically guarded from inspection as the intellectual property of private firms. Now there’s new evidence — as Bloomberg Green found in an exclusive analysis published in today’s Big Take — that risk models often disagree with each other on fundamental assessments of vulnerability.