JPMorgan Boosts US Recession Chance to 35% by End of This Year
- Bank follows Goldman Sachs in raising risk of a downturn
- US news suggests ‘early signs of labor shedding,’ bank says
With US inflation pressures coming down, JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point in September and November.
Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. now sees a 35% chance that the US economy tips into a recession by the end of this year, up from 25% as of the start of last month.
US news “hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,” JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. The team kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%.