Goldman Says Buying S&P After 5% Drop Is Usually Profitable

  • Index has posted 6% median return in 3 months after past drops
  • Strategists warn that US stocks still not pricing in recession
Stock market information displayed at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, on Aug. 5.Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
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Buying US stocks after a slump of the scale witnessed over the past month has usually been profitable, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis of four decades of data.

Since 1980, the S&P 500 Index has generated a median return of 6% in the three months that followed a 5% decline from a recent high, according to the Goldman strategy team led by David Kostin. The benchmark has slumped 8.5% from its mid-July peak.