Economists Trim US Inflation Forecasts, Paving Way for Fed Cut
- Forecasts for PCE core price gauge dialed back through 1H 2025
- Unemployment rate seen ending 2024 at 4.2% in Bloomberg survey
A shopper in the SoHo neighborhood of New York, US.
Photographer: Angus Mordant/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Economists trimmed their US inflation projections through the first half of 2025 and see a slightly higher unemployment rate, a combination they expect will encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
Forecasters in the latest Bloomberg monthly survey see the annual core personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s favored measure of underlying inflation — ending the year at 2.6%. That compares with the prior month’s projection of 2.7%.