Carmignac Sees Energy Transition Fueling Inflation This Decade

  • Transition will add 1.6 percentage points to annual inflation
  • That’s better than unmitigated permanent ‘climateflation’

A refinery in the industrial and port area of Lavera, France.

Photographer: Jeremy Suykur/Bloomberg
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The transition to a low-carbon economy will fan inflation over the coming decade, according to researchers at Carmignac.

The energy transition will add 1.6 percentage points to developed-market inflation each year, the French investment firm said in a paper based on a scenario where temperature rises are capped at 1.5° versus pre-industrial levels. That’s via a mixture of positive demand and negative supply shocks as the dirtiest fuels are phased out amid huge investment in new technologies.