Fundstrat’s Tom Lee on Analyzing Stocks, Tech and Bitcoin
How he develops his price targets.
Tom Lee, the founder of Fundstrat and FS Insight.
Photographer: Cindy Ord/Getty Images North AmericaThe stock market has had a torrid run in 2024 despite the fact that interest rate cuts haven't materialized in the way people had expected at the start of the year. In fact, outside of a few blips here and there (like spring 2020), US stocks have been phenomenal performers for years. Tom Lee, the founder of Fundstrat and FS Insight has been bullish for a long time, having caught the correct side of this lengthy trend. On this episode, we speak to the former JPMorgan strategist about how he thinks about the market, what he sees happening right now in macro and demographic trends, and why he thinks it’s plausible that the market could roughly triple in the next six years. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.
Key insights from the pod:
Is Tom an uber bull? — 3:24
Fundstrat’s recent 5,500 target on the S&P 500 — 5:01
Describing Fundstrat’s approach — 6:14
Why markets are up — 8:35
Evaluating consumer strength — 9:45
Tom’s career as a wireless analyst — 10:37
Comparing the 2000s tech bubble with now — 12:43
Interest rates and stock valuations — 17:50
Tom’s outlook for inflation — 20:22
Fundstrat’s year-end target on the S&P 500 — 22:20
Do price targets matter and the 2030 call — 24:00
How to spot a hype cycle in tech — 26:48
Bear market signals Tom looks for — 30:06
How he comes up with Bitcoin targets — 32:53
Lessons from the post-pandemic period — 38:54