The Budget Geeks Who Helped Solve an American Economic Puzzle
A low-profile government agency’s findings on immigration have thrust it into the center of a hotly divisive political debate.
Construction workers in Brooklyn, New York. An influx of immigrants has eased pressure in what has been a tight labor market.
Photographer: Justin Lane/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
When a low-profile government agency in Washington crunched some numbers to get a clearer picture of the US immigration surge, it helped fill in the puzzle around why the world’s biggest economy has continually defied expectations for a downturn in recent years.
The findings by the Congressional Budget Office, a 270-person agency mostly known for its accounting wonkery, showed that the economic impact of immigration was much bigger than had been previously thought. In a set of 10-year demographic projections published in February, the CBO estimated that the boost to population numbers from immigration would power growth to the tune of $7 trillion through 2033—and would lift government revenue by about $1 trillion—as new workers fill shortages and stoke demand.