Eco Week Ahead

Fed’s Favorite Underlying Inflation Gauge Is Seen Cooling

  • Core PCE measure could see smallest advance of 2024 so far
  • Euro-zone inflation may pick up, but ECB remains poised to cut

A shopper browses clothing for sale in Southampton, New York.

Photographer: Bing Guan/Bloomberg
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The Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge is about to show some modest relief from stubborn price pressures, corroborating central bankers’ prudence about the timing of interest-rate cuts.

Economists expect the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy — due on Friday — to rise 0.2% in April. That would mark the smallest advance so far this year for the measure, which provides a better snapshot of underlying inflation.