Jeff Currie on Copper and What Makes This Commodities Rally Different
A veteran of the space looks back on the supercycle thesis.
A truck transports minerals inside the Codelco Chuquicamata open pit copper mine near Calama, Chile.
Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/BloombergCopper has long been touted as a big winner from the world's drive towards electrification. All those electric vehicles and new grids need lots of the metal to work. At the same time, it takes years for new copper mining capacity to actually come on stream, and so a lot of people have expected a long-term shortage of the metal to materialize. But despite all that excitement, copper prices actually fell over the past few years. Now, copper bulls are getting another chance as the metal surges towards a new record. So why didn't the thesis play out before? And what does the mismatch between short-term prices and long-term supply actually mean for the world? In this episode, we speak to Jeff Currie, a long-time copper bull and commodities veteran who's now at Carlyle Group. We talk to him about why copper is his highest-conviction trade ever, plus the outlook for oil and big changes in petrodollars. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.
Key insights from the pod:
Currie’s supercycle thesis and copper — 4:14
Copper as the “highest conviction trade” ever — 11:15
China and why copper fell in recent years
Growing production via M&A versus investment — 14:10
Does copper supply eventually respond to price? — 15:41
Silver and the energy transition — 18:46
Tightness in copper concentrates — 20:28
Jeff Currie’s copper forecast — 22:28
Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group — 24:28
The impact of non-OPEC supply on oil prices — 27:09
The evolution of oil demand and a ‘Lake Erie’ moment — 20:48
Moving from petrodollar recycling to “gold recycling”
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