Goldman Sees Delayed Trump-Biden Election Call as a Trading Risk
- ‘I think there’s going to be some recounts,’ David Kostin says
- VIX curve shows traders not pricing in risk of prolonged vote
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says traders trying to game out the upcoming presidential campaign are missing one big risk: No decision on election night.
It’s entirely plausible that Americans won’t know who their next president is on Nov. 5 or the days to come, considering President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are roughly even in national polls. And a prolonged decision could spur a surge in market volatility that investors aren’t pricing in, said David Kostin, the bank’s chief US equity strategist.