June Fed Rate-Cut Odds Dip Below 50% After Strong ISM Data

Bond traders priced in less monetary-policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year — and briefly set the odds of a first move in June below 50% — after a gauge of US manufacturing activity showed expansion for the first time since 2022.

The amount of Fed rate cuts priced into swap contracts for this year dropped to fewer than 65 basis points — less than Fed policymakers themselves have forecast — after a report on ISM manufacturing for March exceeded all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. A bond-market decline lifted two- to 30-year Treasury yields roughly 10 or more basis points on the day, among their biggest daily increases this year.