ESG & Investing

Risk Models Behind World’s Best Hedge Fund Strategy Are Getting a Lot Harder to Crack

  • Insurance-linked securities drove best 2023 hedge fund bet
  • Market faces new loss risks as ‘secondary perils’ upend models
A partially submerged car on a flooded road during a storm in Long Beach, California, on Feb. 1.Photographer: David Swason/AFP/Getty Images
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As the best hedge fund strategy of 2023 becomes a magnet for mainstream investors, the risk models it relies on are getting a lot tougher to crack.

The strategy in question is tied to insurance-linked securities, which are dominated by catastrophe bonds (often dubbed cat bonds). In 2023, no other asset class produced a better-performing bet for hedge funds, with firms including Fermat Capital Management and Tenax Capital booking their biggest-ever returns.