Bond Traders Cave to the Fed by Dialing Back Their Rate-Cut Bets

  • Derivatives show market, Fed expectations are getting in sync
  • A wide gulf remained between the two as recently as December

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC.

Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg
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Bond traders are finally heeding one of the market’s oldest lessons: Don’t fight the Fed.

As the Federal Reserve pushed through its steepest interest-rate hikes in decades, investors consistently misjudged how far it would go, handing them steep losses in 2022 as Treasuries tumbled.