Traders Bid Up Newest VIX Contract to Hedge Trump-Biden Risks

VIX October futures, which encompass vote, begin trading
Gap between October, September contracts wider than 2020, 2016

Even with the election months away, Wall Street is already beginning to game out the potential impact of a Trump victory, including higher yields, a stronger dollar and a drag on trading partners’ currencies. — Even with the election months away, Wall Street is already beginning to game out the potential impact of a Trump victory, including higher yields, a stronger dollar and a drag on trading partners’ currencies.
Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

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By Elena Popina

January 26, 2024 at 2:59 PM UTC

This article is for subscribers only.

Wall Street is more anxious heading into the 2024 US presidential election than it was at this point ahead of the past two votes, judging by one early market indicator.

Traders have bid up Cboe VIX October futures, whose underlying S&P 500 options encompass the Nov. 5 vote, since the contract started trading earlier this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price is now 3.3 points higher than the contract expiring in September. That gap is wider than it was in late January during the 2016 and 2020 election cycles, the data show.