Fed Rate-Cut Wagers for March May Lean Too Heavily on History
- On average Fed has eased about six months after last rate hike
- Bonds fell Tuesday after Fed’s Waller caution about rate cuts
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In the face of continued warnings from the Federal Reserve, traders betting on a March interest-rate cut may be relying too heavily on history, according to some strategists.
On average, the Fed has tended to ease about six months after its final rate hike, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1980. With officials expected to stand pat in January, extending a hold since July, the current pause is set to be longer than the previous episodes.