Weather & Science

El Niño Nears Historic Intensity With Threat of Weather Havoc

  • Warming across the Pacific may be in the top five since 1950
  • Worst impacts more likely but not guaranteed as El Niño peaks

Firefighters attempt to extinguish a wildfire on peatland and fields on Sept. 23 in South Sumatra, Indonesia. 

Photographer: Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images
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El Niño is threatening to become one of the most intense events of its type in history as the weather pattern approaches its peak strength in the coming weeks.

The phenomenon is driven by warming waters across the equatorial Pacific, and the odds of rising ocean temperatures have gone up — amplifying El Niño’s influence over global weather patterns. There’s now a 54% chance water temperatures will reach 2 C (3.6F) above normal across the key region, according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Those odds were calculated at 35% just a month ago.