Argentina’s Milei to Face ‘Painful Recession’ Next Year, IIF Says

  • Triple-digit inflation to persist, FX correction inevitable
  • Political complacency is a “key risk,” says Martin Castellano

Javier Milei 

Photographer: Tomas Cuesta/Getty Images
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Argentina will face a severe recession and triple-digit inflation rates next year with or without the major economic policy changes libertarian President-elect Javier Milei pledged after winning Sunday’s election, according to the Institute of International Finance.

“A painful recession in 2024 seems inevitable, no matter what policy framework prevails,” Martin Castellano, the head of Latin America research at the institute, wrote in a research note published Monday. He sees the Argentine economy contracting 1.3% in 2024, after a 2.4% drop this year.