China Economy Likely Struggled for Traction Despite Stimulus
- Retail sales likely jumped on favorable comparisons to 2022
- PBOC expected to hold key policy rate steady, inject more cash
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China’s economic activity probably faltered in October, with numbers that look good relative to last year seen masking a slowdown in activity headed into the final months of 2023.
That dynamic will be most evident in retail sales data, which is expected to show a 7% jump year-on-year as it compares to pandemic and lockdown-hit 2022. But economists see activity possibly slowing from September, as other indicators have shown consumer demand and confidence losing momentum. Growth in fixed-asset investment and industrial production, meanwhile, was likely flat.