Indicators
UK Is Likely in Recession Right Now, Bloomberg Analysis Shows
- Modeling shows 52% chance of a mild recession in second half
- Risks growing of sharper decline than previously projected
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Britain is probably already in a recession after soaring interest rates and rising unemployment turned households more cautious about spending, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics.
The research by Bloomberg economists Dan Hanson and Andrej Sokol estimates that there’s a 52% chance of a mild recession in the second half of this year, as defined by two consecutive quarters of contraction. The analysis was published Monday ahead of official data on gross domestic product due Friday.