Soaring Neutral Rate to Hurt Nasdaq, Treasuries, Survey Shows
Nasdaq 100 to fall up to 10% this quarter, almost half of respondents say
Pedestrians in front of the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York in June 2022.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
The interest rate that neither spurs nor slows the US economy has at least doubled in the aftermath of the pandemic, handing investors a reason to be nervous about buying bonds or stocks, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Some 85% of 528 respondents reckon the so-called real neutral rate — which strips out the effect of inflation — has risen to around 100 basis points or higher, from estimates of about 50 basis points before Covid struck.