The S&P 500 Rallies 10% When It Goes a Year Without Record High
- Gains averaged 4% in the year following at least one peak
- The index needs another 14% to hit January 2022 all-time high
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The S&P 500 Index hasn’t scaled a record high so far this year. If history is any signal, that would mean a sharp rally is due in 2024.
The benchmark has posted an average annual gain of 10% once it’s gone an entire calendar year without notching an all-time high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When there’s at least one peak, the following year saw an advance of just 4%. And when it exceeded 30 records — 22 times in the last century — it was followed by a gain of 2.8%.