Bond Market’s ‘Vicious Cycle’ Risk Puts Spotlight on Fed’s QT
- Rising Treasury supply and QT push long-dated yields higher
- Higher rates are expected to ‘break something’ and halt QT
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The worst selloff of longer-term Treasuries in more than four decades is putting a spotlight on the market’s biggest missing buyer: the Federal Reserve.
The Fed is shrinking its portfolio of government securities at a $720 billion annual pace, making the Treasury Department’s job of funding a near-$2 trillion federal deficit all the harder. Quantitative tightening, as the Fed’s program is known, ended earlier than officials expected the last time it was executed, and some market participants predict the same this time.