China Growth May Fall to 2.9% If Property Crisis Widens, S&P Says
Source: Bloomberg
This article is for subscribers only.
China’s economic growth could drop below 3% in 2024 if the real estate slowdown deepens, according to S&P Global Ratings, underscoring how the ongoing housing crisis remains a serious drag on the world’s second-largest economy.
In a downside scenario, property sales in 2024 would decline up to 25% from 2022, to about 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion). S&P estimates that this would shrink China’s real gross domestic product growth to 2.9% that year. The rating agency sees a 20% probability of it happening with Beijing providing no significant government stimulus to the sector, nor discretionary fiscal or monetary support.