US Trade Data Overstates Decoupling From China, Report Says
- Drop in import share overstated by some 5 percentage points
- Rerouting and under-invoicing are seen behind the gap in data
The report underscores the challenge the US faces in its efforts to “de-risk” from China’s economy.
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The US’ reduction in its import dependence on China is less than official figures indicate, according to research looking at under-invoicing and trade rerouting.
The share of US imports coming from China has dropped by 2-3 percentage points since Washington imposed large-scale tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, rather than the around 8 percentage-point drop shown in US government data, Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Thomas Gatley wrote in a note.