A Saudi-Israeli Peace Deal? Who Wants What and Why

A deal is being negotiated that, if completed, would result in Saudi Arabia, for the first time, establishing warm relations with Israel. The main thing the Saudis would get in exchange — security guarantees — wouldn’t come from Israel but from its closest ally — the US. Israel, a high-tech power, would play a major role in ambitious Saudi plans to move its economy beyond oil. It would also be expected to make concessions to the Palestinian self-ruling authority in the West Bank. The US would regain some of its influence over Saudi Arabia, stemming efforts by China to expand its sway in the Middle East. The deal offers significant rewards to all four governments, not least of them additional ways of dealing with Iranian military activity in the region. But the prospect of the pact stirs populist forces among all of their constituencies, posing risks to those in power.

All sides are in direct contact. According to sources familiar with the talks, the US side is led by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his deputies Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein. For the Saudis, it’s Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, who is the brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as National Security Adviser Musaed Al-Aiban. For the Israelis, it’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a former ambassador to the US and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s most trusted aide. Diplomatic Adviser Majdi Khaldi has been in charge for the Palestinians. Officials of the three main negotiating governments say that the complexities are such that a deal will be very difficult to pull off – yet very much worth trying.