Why Are US Gas Prices Going Up? When Will They Fall?

Gasoline prices in the US are in the midst of a surprise late-season rally. Even small increases can have an outsize impact on consumer confidence and evoke painful memories of last year’s record surge in pump prices that helped drive inflation to a 40-year high. With the election season starting to heat up, fuel costs are once again at the center of the political debate. Republicans have blamed President Joe Biden’s climate policies for the price surge. Democrats accuse oil company executives of exploiting drivers to fatten their profit margins. The real reasons aren’t so clear-cut.

Pump prices are near their highest level ever for this time of year. Prices peaked in mid-2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They remained well below those highs for much of this summer, before climbing when they typically fall. On Aug. 30, average pump prices reached $3.83 a gallon. That’s a penny below last year’s seasonal record and 90 cents above the five-year average, according to data from the American Automobile Association.