Landlords With $1.2 Trillion of Debt Face Rising Default Risks

  • Newmark sees defaults mounting for overleveraged owners
  • Offices account for biggest share of potentially troubled debt

An empty office building in San Francisco.

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
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About $1.2 trillion of debt on US commercial real estate is “potentially troubled” because it’s highly leveraged and property values are falling, according to Newmark Group Inc.

Offices are the biggest near-term problem, accounting for more than half of the $626 billion of at-risk debt that’s set to mature by the end of 2025, the brokerage estimates. Office values have tumbled 31% from a peak in March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, according to property analytics firm Green Street.