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Vanguard Still Isn’t Buying a US ‘Soft Landing’

The labor market needs to weaken to get inflation all the way back to 2%, Joseph Davis says, and that will mean a recession.

Joseph H. Davis, principal and chief economist the Vanguard Group Inc.

Photographer: Scott Eells
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A rallying stock market and better-than-expected second-quarter economic growth are just the latest developments pointing Wall Street skeptics to the possibility of a US “soft landing.” That’s where the Federal Reserve gets inflation back down to around 2% without triggering a downturn.