What End of Ukraine Grain Export Deal Means for the World

Russia’s efforts to obstruct Ukraine’s food exports are working. First, Moscow quit a pact that had allowed safe passage of crops from Black Sea ports. Then it sent drones to bombard grain terminals along the Danube river — the next most important shipping route. Ukrainian farmers worried their grain wouldn’t find its way to foreign buyers now plan to plant less for the next season, and that’s stoking worries about global supplies.

Ukraine is Europe’s second-largest country by area, and its vast plains of dark, rich soil are ideal for farming. Food from Ukraine has helped to shape the course of European history, feeding the populations of fast-growing industrial cities in the 19th century and sustaining the Soviet Union through decades of isolation. Before the war, Ukraine exported more grain than the entire European Union and supplied about half of the globally traded sunflower seeds and oil. Even in the 2022-23 season — the first full year under Russia’s invasion — Ukraine has held as the sixth-largest wheat shipper and third for corn. As the season came to a close at the end of June, Ukraine’s grain exports were more than 48 million tons, about steady with the 2021-22 season.