A 2023 Recession Wouldn’t Be So Bad for Biden. A Downturn in 2024 Would

  • One-term presidents have bad economic news as voters deciding
  • Bloomberg survey shows 65% chance of recession in next year

Joe Biden in Washington, DC, on June 14.

Photographer: Bonnie Cash/Bloomberg

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If a recession is going to come in the next 12 months — and most economists surveyed by Bloomberg say it probably is — then President Joe Biden should hope it begins sooner rather than later.

The last three one-term presidents — Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Donald Trump — have all had their reelection hopes felled by an economic downturn.