NYC Revenue Won’t Tank in Office ‘Doomsday’ Scenario, Comptroller Says

  • Brad Lander sees $1.1 billion revenue shortfall in fiscal 2027
  • Analysis assumes 40% decline in office values over six years

An empty bank office in New York.

Photographer: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg

A “doomsday” scenario for the Manhattan office market would only result in a modest property tax revenue shortfall for New York City, according to city Comptroller Brad Lander.

If the value of office properties decline 40% from 2023 to 2029, there would be a revenue shortfall of $322.7 million in the fiscal year 2025 beginning July 1 2024, a report released on Tuesday by Lander said. The shortfall would increase to $1.1 billion in fiscal 2027, which makes up only 3% of the total property tax levy, or 1.4% of city tax revenues.