Economics
Recession Calls Keep Getting Pushed Back, Giving Soft Landing Believers Hope
Defying sharp rate hikes, unemployment stays low and consumers resilient.
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The small group of economists who’ve been maintaining that the US can avoid a recession, despite the most aggressive Federal Reserve tightening in decades, is starting to breathe easier.
Many of their peers had expected surging interest rates— up 5 percentage points in just over a year—would’ve put a more material dent in hiring and personal consumption by now. Instead, the unemployment rate is hovering at a more-than-five-decade low, consumers are still spending, and the housing market is beginning to stabilize.