US Stock Bulls Ignore 100 Years of Recessions at Their Peril

  • There’s been no US recession without a market slump since 1929
  • S&P 500 is up more than 8% this year, reversing March tumble

Wall Street traders in 1929.

Photographer: AFP/Getty Images
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The chorus of stock bulls predicting US equities will weather a recession has got it wrong, if history is any guide.

OptimistsBloomberg Terminal say stocks hit this cycle’s low in 2022 and an economic contraction this year or in early 2024 would only dentBloomberg Terminal the rebound. The market backs them up: The S&P 500 Index has gained more than 8% so far this year, quickly reversing the slump after Silicon Valley Bank’s failure in March.