China Property Crash Would Cap Growth at 3%: Bloomberg Economics
- Estimate underlines importance of stabilizing real estate
- Government stimulus would reduce, not eliminate growth hit
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China’s economic growth would fail to top 3% over the next two years in the event of a property market crash where government stimulus is still not enough to offset the damage, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis that underlines the importance of real estate to the nation’s recovery.
A 15% drop in property investment over the next year — which is not in Bloomberg Economics’ base scenario for growth — would create a “crash landing” that deals a “devastating blow to China’s economy,” economists Chang Shu, Eric Zhu and Ana Galvao wrote in a report that explored scenarios for a “sudden collapse” in the sector. The Bloomberg Economics model looks at impacts on growth through changes in investment, bank lending and added uncertainty.