Prognosis
World Has 28% Risk of New Covid-Like Pandemic Within 10 Years
- Climate change, international travel raise risks: Airfinity
- Many high-risk pathogens don’t have vaccines or treatments
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There’s a 27.5% chance a pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 could take place in the next decade as viruses emerge more frequently, with rapid vaccine rollout the key to reducing fatalities, according to a predictive health analytics firm.
Climate change, growth in international travel, increasing populations and the threat posed by zoonotic diseases contribute to the risk, according to London-based Airfinity Ltd. But if effective vaccines are rolled out 100 days after the discovery of a new pathogen, the likelihood of a deadly pandemic drops to 8.1%, according to the firm’s modeling.