Economists Boost US Recession Odds on Higher Rates and Banking Woes
- Bloomberg monthly survey shows 65% odds, up from 60%
- Forecasters also raise inflation estimates through 3Q 2024
This article is for subscribers only.
Odds of the US economy backsliding into a recession are higher now than a month ago after steady interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and growing risks of tighter credit conditions in the wake of several bank failures.
The probability of a downturn in the next 12 months stands at 65%, up from 60% odds in February, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. The poll was conducted March 20-27, in the aftermath of several bank closures that included Silicon Valley Bank, with 48 economists responding about the odds of a recession.