Oil Traders’ Bearish Turn Signals Prices May Stay Low

  • Options, futures markets show increasingly downbeat wagers
  • US crude prices plunged 14% this month to sink below $70
Oil pumpjacks in Los Angeles, California.(Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
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Ask the world’s biggest oil traders where the market is headed as prices hover near a 15-month low, and you’ll hear almost universal agreement: The stage is set for a rally.

But an examination of trading data tells a much different story. In the past two weeks, speculators have cut bullish positions in US crude to the lowest in more than a decade while bets on a downturn are at a four-year highBloomberg Terminal. The options market shows similar pessimism in the so-called put skew, a measure of bearishness.