Peaking Inflation Risks Are Sending Japan Investors a Curveball

  • Tokyo CPI seen rising at much slower pace on power subsidies
  • Market players need to look beyond key figure for deeper trend

A shopper enters a drugstore in the Yanesen district of Tokyo.

Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
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Japan’s inflation is set to cool sharply from its peak as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s energy subsidies kick in, complicating the picture for investors trying to gauge whether the central bank is right about the path for core inflation.

Early inflation figures for Tokyo, due Friday, are expected to show core consumer price growth slowing a full percentage point to 3.3% in February, from January’s four-decade high.