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China’s Economic Bonanza From Record Trade Surplus Is Fading

  • Current account surplus contribution to GDP seen declining
  • Drop may complicate Beijing’s economic plan, fuel yuan risks

China may lose a key support for economic growth and the yuan this year as residents flock overseas again and exports continue to plummet because of a global slowdown.

After hitting a 14-year high of almost $420 billion last year, the surplus on the current account — the broadest measure of trade in goods and services — is expected to narrow sharply this year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict it will weaken to 1.4% of gross domestic product this year, down from 2.3% in 2022.