US Economy Seen Shrinking in Next Two Quarters, Survey Shows

  • Forecasters see GDP declining in the second and third quarters
  • Year-ahead recession odds stand at 65%, Bloomberg survey shows

Pedestrians walk along Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange.

Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
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Forecasters now expect US economic activity to contract over consecutive quarters in the middle of this year as steep interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve cascade more broadly across the economy.

Gross domestic product is seen falling at a 0.6% annualized rate in the second quarter and 0.3% in the third as consumer spending stagnates, business investment wanes and industrial production weakens, according to a Bloomberg survey of 73 economists conducted Jan. 13-18.