Fed Staff Warn Chance of Recession in Next Year Is Now Near 50%
- Odds of downturn in US now ‘almost as likely as the baseline’
- Slower consumer spending, more rate hikes among risks
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC.
Photographer: Al Drago/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Federal Reserve staff economists briefed policymakers this month that the chances of a US recession in the next year had risen to almost 50% on risks of slower consumer spending, global economic risks and further interest-rate hikes.
The forecast, as detailed Wednesday in minutes of the Nov. 1-2 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, was the first such warning since the central bank began raising rates in March.