What ‘Backwardation’ Has to Do With US Diesel Squeeze

A crisis is once again brewing in the US for the diesel fuel that powers trucks and heats homes. Global shortages and a market phenomenon known as backwardation are frustrating Biden administration efforts to bolster dangerously low domestic inventories and keep prices from soaring as winter approaches. Officials are now considering steps like export restrictions that would be unprecedented -- and that critics say could well backfire.

The country is down to 25 days of diesel supply with stockpiles at their lowest level for this time of year in records going back to 1993. In the Northeast, where more people burn fuel for home heating than anywhere else in the country, inventories are a third of their typical levels heading into winter. National Economic Council Director Brian Deese called the levels “unacceptably low.” By late October, diesel prices had risen for more than two weeks to 50% above where they were a year ago.