A New Cold War Is Heating Up the Arctic
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated a great power race for ascendancy in the north, with potentially dire consequences for the planet
A Trans Arctic shipping route could emerge should the North Pole become ice-free in the summer or year-round.
Source: Getty Images
The North Pole is melting faster than ever, but the chill in the air at this year’s global gathering of Arctic experts had more to do with the widening repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The planetary consequences of that war have, by now, reached far beyond the disruption of climate efforts in Europe, where gas shortages have prompted governments to recommission coal plants. The conflict has also intensified a race among great powers for ascendancy in the Arctic, adding to pressure on a fragile system that’s critical to mitigating global warming.
Not since the Cold War has there been such focus on the frigid expanse that caps the Earth. More than half the Arctic coastline belongs to Russia, which is increasingly isolated from its northern neighbors. That’s turned the region into a growing security concern for the US, which has a foothold through Alaska.
As a result, this year’s Arctic Circle Assembly at times took on the air of a geopolitical summit rather than a gathering of climate and development experts. While Russia was noticeably absent from the event held last week in Reykjavik’s iconic glass-scaled Harpa Concert Hall, an unprecedented 2,000 attendees spilled into corridors and wedged themselves into doorways. Military uniforms popped out among the dark suits of politicians, executives and scientists. And the conference drew a record number of US officials armed with the first update to America’s Arctic strategy in a decade.
War in Europe has already derailed other efforts at regional cooperation. Meetings of the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation on biodiversity, climate and pollution, have been suspended since the war began in February.
While climate remains a pillar of US policy, Derek Chollet, Counselor at the US State Department, told me — security takes precedence. Of greatest concern to the US would be any move by Russia to restrict freedom of navigation, build military forces or test certain high-tech weapons in the Arctic, but it is also worried about China’s growing interest in the region.
“As we've seen elsewhere where China has chosen to be a regional player, that's often in a zero-sum way," Chollet said. “I don't think it's in any of our interests to see the Arctic become another example of this.”
Read More: NATO-China Tension Over Ukraine Flares at Conference in Iceland
Russia set up a Northern Command in 2014, opening multiple new and former Soviet military sites in the Arctic. It’s also developing new nuclear submarines for Arctic operations, including Arcturus, which can deploy underwater drones and hypersonic missiles. The shortest route to North America from Russia is still over the top of our planet and the new missiles will require near-instantaneous reaction time, military experts say.
The US hasn’t been idle either. It’s working with Arctic ally Canada to revitalize a Cold War era joint aerospace defense command. And once Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO is complete — prompted by the invasion of Ukraine — Russia will be the only Arctic state outside that key defense alliance, also forged during the Cold War as a bulwark against Soviet expansion in Europe. All that adds to an overwhelming sense that the world is returning to an era of great powers competing for resources and security, rather than collaborating over climate.
“Unfortunately,” Canada’s Governor General Mary Simon told conference attendees, the war in Ukraine has “impacted global cooperation, halting a number of collaborative projects in the Arctic.”